BPO FOR DEMOGRAPHIC BALANCING

Demographic imbalances are, quite rightly, emotive national issues. No country can naturally afford or acquiesce in a situation that allows for a whole swathe of jobs to be held by expatriates; while a steady stream of educated nationals and citizens of the country emerge out of schools, colleges and universities; seeking gainful employment.  Therefore, enlightened self-interests ought to be recognized as a raison d'etre  behind 'localization' or emiritization policies that translate into job quotas. Better still, these should help identify skill-sets and gaps that can be remedied and redressed through the educational system. They ought to re-design the courses that are offered in colleges; and matching them with what the industry, albeit manufacturing, SMEs and service sectors require.

Of course, the problem is multi-faceted and is not a crisis but a chronic malady that can be dealt with only gradually and strategically and not by dramatic flourishes or announcements. The fact that the expatriates hold a huge number of jobs, would make them part of the problem and therefore, by definition, they cannot be part of the solution. There are however, sound policies and approaches that need to be fashioned to respond to this deep-rooted issue. One suggestion would be to encourage 'mentoring' on a time-bound basis i.e. bring in expatriates only in advisory capacities; requiring them to transfer knowledge and skills in a timely manner, so as to build a reservoir / pool of talent and experience that can then help build the nation. Of course, that is too high falutin' a statement to make; without specific and concrete action plans. Increasingly, the service sector in the UAE will account for over 20% of the nation's GDP.

If one were to include the government / civil sector jobs (which are intended anyway to provide services to citizens), then the number of jobs at stake, could be quite significant.  Based on the numbers at schools, colleges and the demographic mix, a blue print can be drawn up to match supply and demand on the one hand and chart a course of action for rebalancing the demographic mix that currently obtains.  Expatriates and overseas investments can be encouraged to retain quality and preferred managerial talent.

Given that this is an emotive and sensitive issue, the precise plans should be transparently disclosed to avoid any ambiguity or doubt. They need not be based on any prejudices - perceived or real; nor should there be any built-in bias in rebalancing. Any number of experts will give unsolicited and tendentious advice about the country's  strategic interests and security issues. For instance, a huge number of the resident populace may be from the Indian sub-continent; dominating the demographic landscape. But these are current realities, not necessarily potential threats. Every nation has the right to alter the mix and give primacy to its interests, but given that some of this is legacy, they need not be junked in a hurry only to regret the void later.

A few issues are worthy of a dialogue and discussion. It could help, for example, to consider business process or service process outsourcing i.e. BPO. Accounting services, banking operations, call centres, research, analytics etc. can all be outsourced by a low population country that wishes to promote only high capital intensive projects not requiring huge foreign labour. Many UAE nationals, for instance, are very well-versed in technology and therefore, could comfortably control the levers and output of such outsourcing, through technological interfaces. This way, the processing jobs that are currently being located here, could migrate overseas, enhancing efficiency.

There would, as a result, be less pressures on infrastructure and health services. Effectively, offshore processing of jobs that are manpower-intensive, would be suitable economic models. The applications are numerous say for industrial processes that can be outsourced. Ultimately, apart from market access and management activities, which need to be located within a country, a whole host of economic activities can be remote-processed and the deliverables would then be cost-effective and seamlessly transferable. 

A major issue for many GCC states is the need to cultivate a strong sense of dignity of labour. At the moment, a number of the so-called 'menial' jobs are relegated to and justify an influx of expatriates. Some of these are unskilled or semi-skilled activities and therefore, perceived to be beneath the dignity of the blue-eyed or thorough-bred, but they are very essential to human and commercial sustenance.  It is a little bit like what the Greek philosopher, Descartes said several millennia back when he so presciently  declared that "any nation that scorns plumbing because it is a lowly job and exalts philosophy because it is cerebral,  will end with neither its pipes nor its theories holding water"!

All this hullabaloo in the U.K. and U.S.A about business process outsourcing (BPO) with jobs being 'lost' to call centres in India, is understandable but not necessarily, justifiable. The OECD countries cannot expect to enforce free market access, dismantling of tariffs and barriers in the Third World and yet not allow even-handed treatment in BPO.  The WTO regime for trade in goods and services encompasses the service sector, which includes BPOs and software. Migration of jobs make the OECD want to suddenly take (protective) cover! The Indiana state in the U.S.A. ruled that outsourcing cannot be outside the state or the region but is content for its produce to be exported far and wide in the world at large.

Ultimately, core competencies, centres of excellence and free markets are the sine qua non of the modern global economy and international body politic. These are  essentially, Western concepts that all new nations and emerging markets have embraced whole-heartedly, Therefore, the OECD states cannot have the cake and eat it too. This is no different from manufacturing, where the lowest cost factors of production determine production priorities. These conditions were obtainable in China in the 1990s. In a similar vein, it is happening now in India  for the service sector jobs. The trick in all these things, is to make a virtue out of necessity. As nations should endeavour to improve efficiency, only then will they find that they head towards a neat and profitable division of labour. This is perhaps a time-honoured concept that can be emulated by countries such as the UAE. Using BPO, they can, over a period of time, minimise demographic imbalances.

Perhaps all this is radical thinking out of the box! But then, if you have "jack(s) in the box", you need new ideas to achieve your core objectives; not labour on worn out and cliched concepts. That is what science and principles are all about and one need not be wedded to the dogmas of the past and merely run to standstill!

The author is General Manager of Emirates Bank.  However, the views expressed in this article are not necessarily shared by the Bank.

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