THE RUN-UP TO THE IMF / WORLD BANK MEET

The widespread preparations and the daily announcements about the IMF / World Bank Meet in the third week of September 2003, are not altogether unusual. It is a prestigious event and as the first one to be held in the Arab world, Dubai can justifiably, feel proud and undoubtedly, benefit from the global exposure, the quality of interaction, the visibility in the highest economic echelons and the recognition that this premiere financial event will bring to the emirate. More importantly, some 15,000 delegates, their spouses and the world media will discover, if they have not already been here, the superb hospitality, infrastructure and the ambience that this city has to offer. Most will envy quietly, the hassle-free business ambience and the tax-free environment.  In that sense, this will be a magnificent window, nay showcase of opportunity to project the UAE's economic landscape and its versatile financial mosaic. That is not a hyperbole; although a judicious blend of hype and deliverable realities have always been a hallmark of certain activities in Dubai.

Having attended some of these IMF / WB meetings outside the U.S. (beginning with the one in Hong Kong in 1997, when it reverted to Chinese sovereignty to the more recent Meet in Prague in 2001), the magnitude of this gathering has to be seen to be believed! To some, it can be overpowering or disconcerting. Prudently, therefore,  the authorities have decided to modify and manage the vehicular traffic flow efficiently, if necessary, also considering as to how the schools and some offices in and around the venue can have alternatives presented to them.

Some respectable event management companies conform to Malcolm Muggeridge's words that 'it is better to travel, hopefully, than arrive' and the fun is before and then the anti-climax. It is similar to a true holiday, where it is more pleasure planning it than actually living through the trip.

Few can gauge well that  the IMF/ World Bank Meet does pose enormous challenges for the organizers, at every step, along the way. So much professionalism and  attention to detail are required of so many managers. Eventually, it rolls out as smoothly and then, it becomes a little bit of relief and less anticipation for those who may have feared the worst and then discovered that except for a few inevitable hiccups (hopefully small!), nothing actually warranted the amount of anxiety that preceded it.  Murphy's Law that 'what can go wrong will go wrong', can be mitigated through careful contingency planning.

Both in Hong Kong and in Prague, the activities surrounding the IMF / World Bank Meetings were even more worthwhile. For instance, the Institute of International Finance  (IIF) organizes its Annual Meetings around the IMF / WB Meet and has some 300 top institutional members i.e. the "who's who" of the international financial sector. Their conferences are usually of a very high calibre and quality of attendance and proceeding. There is also their Chief Risk Officers' (CRO) Forum. Again this year, the Institute has decided to hold this in Dubai, in the run-up to the IMF / World Bank Meeting. These are in fact the conferences / symposia that many in the industry will look forward to. The professional discourse is intellectually stimulating and engage the attention of the chief executives and senior management of financial institutions.

Some may dub the IMF / World Bank Meet as a big jumboree and in a sense, convulsed in convoluted connotations. Each country, from Angola to Zimbabwe (A to Z), will get their turn to speak and they may all well cover geo-political and vacuous grounds! Cliches and jargon abound, and everyone tries to hit the moral high ground, with their high falutin rhetoric. Much focus will be on the current dominant political issues, for instance, the low growth rate in the Western world, unemployment, Iraq reconstruction, the Afghan conundrum, Palestine, the opening up of Arab markets, the impact of SARS on the Asean and China's growth rates (what with Hong Kong already experiencing a contraction) and the need to prevent another Argentina. Because it is being held in the GCC, the oil prices will continue to be talked about and so will the WTO issues.

Unlike any past Meets, there are mercifully, no earth-shaking economic issues and the global financial scene is benign. For instance, before the 1997 Meet, the Asean crises and the debt default by the 'roaring Tigers', the South East Asian economies were the burning topics. The Russian debt default in the late 90s, clouded the horizon in Prague.  Today it is difficult to see such financial fiascos haunting us; other than the 'pensions overhang' or the sluggish growth rates that will dominate the September agenda.  Even Latin America, the traditional liability zone (?) has shown some significant economic improvement, especially Chile, Mexico and Brazil, even if Argentina is only limping back to recovery. Similarly, even Japan is recording some positive economic growth at last and therefore, a positive albeit erratic stock market movement in many OECD countries.

Capital adequacy and the new Basle Capital II Accord will no doubt, be discussed at this Meet, but here again, the jury is still out as to the latter's efficacy. All in all, while it is not a bright economic scenario, there are a few explosive or divisive financial sector matters that will cause an emotional divide and have tempers flying. That may sound a bit boring, but is indeed a happy setting for the IMF / World Bank meeting in Dubai. In a more strategic sense, the developing world can and should get the attention to strategic issues with regard to their economic and financial priorities. Already, there is a good ground-swell of  hope and anticipation for a week of healthy discussions and hopefully, proactive and positive action steps.

 
The author is General Manager of Emirates Bank.  However, the views expressed in this article are not necessarily shared by the Bank].

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