Re-Balancing Expatriate Demographic Mix

26 May2002

The chorus of calls for enhanced employment for the nationals of a country is fully understandable, achievable and is worthy of attention and support. That this clarion call has reached a crescendo in this part of the world is again, not a unique phenomenon to this region alone. The world has seen similar movements from time immemorial. It has always been an emotive issue but it need not be a divisive one. For instance, the whiplash in the U.K. against the Asians, against the Turks in Germany or against the Mexicans and Latinos in USA are all manifestations of the same malaise and malice (!); if one could call them that. Even a rightful requirement ought not to be pursued virulently and violently; as was done in many parts of the Western world; where immigration got coloured with the darkest of the hues (pun unintended !) and led to a natural revulsion, among those who perceived that their jobs were being taken away by the newly arrived and who expressed their displeasure in a racial and therefore reprehensible manner.

This syndrome is part of a wider socio-economic problem and needs to be dealt with, in a carefully planned and proactive manner. In a sense, it is no different from the 'Bhumiputras' or the 'sons of the soil' programmes in Malaysia and Indonesia. Similar attempts were also made by certain provinces (Maharashtra, Orissa etc.) in India, where the native populace of that province was sought to be given precedence and priority in public sector employment over those that had migrated from other provinces within the same country.

The relative merits and demerits over such policies can and should be quarrelled over, hopefully, in an intellectual and not physical manner. There is no escaping from the emotional and popular content of this issue and that alone is the reason why the politicians and parliamentarians of the world express very strong views in this regard and, in some cases, have articulated even before they have analysed the underlying aspects in some depth ! This is where the psychological quotient needs to be sifted out and snuffed and the economic aspects evaluated appropriately.

The problem becomes somewhat acute in this region; given the substantial demographic imbalance and when the home-grown native nationals find themselves in a minority. The average age of the population, besides, is low. Therefore, as the employable youth come on stream from the various colleges and universities and into the jobs market, it is naturally disconcerting and glaring to find that some good jobs and plum positions have been occupied by expatriates. This is where saner councils should prevail. Fortunately, in the UAE (and in Dubai, in particular), a good plan is being rolled out to foster entrepreneurship and create business clusters such as the free zones, be those in the old and new economies. This is a very sensible way forward and is a matter of pride and satisfaction, that the fine young, well trained nationals rapidly moving in and occupying key positions in these free zones (which are being created as if they are going out of fashion !). They have the necessary drive, ambition and intellectual prowess to power ahead the leadership vision and this ought to be emulated by other countries in the region. Clearly the Dubai Strategic Plan is at work and has focused on the "services sector", in the main, including travel, tourism, hospitality and financial services. The services sector has always been a harbinger of high employment creation at the white collar and professional levels. Those that have chosen manufacturing and projects as the focus, be it Abu Dhabi or Saudi Arabia, through downstream and upstream petroleum projects, find that these are both skills-intensive and do not create as many jobs as can be filled by the nationals of the country.

This major issue needs to be dealt with in a spirit of support and sensitivity. Nevertheless, the authorities would be well advised to pursue this without causing any adverse side-effects. Ultimately, to achieve successful and quick results, there has got to be a 'steriod boost' but as in the use of steriods, other medicines are required to be taken to offset the ill effects that may accompany all powerful medicines and surgery.

Firstly, this has to be a home-grown movement based on each country's analysis of its own interests, strategic objectives and economic and social health diagnostics. No third country experts or supra-national specialists can visit, for a few weeks and prescribe alternate recipes. After the Gulf War, there was a report that certain U.S. academics were appalled at the demographic imbalance found in the GCC region and cast aspersions on the clusters of certain communities. They magnified the likely impact, in geo-political terms, of such imbalances. Empirically, there was nothing to support such conclusions as were reached. This may well have been a paranoia-seeding prospect that opened doors for others ! With 'what if scenarios and simulations', you can dramatise any situation as being unstable and full of potential and grave risks. For decades and centuries, this part of the world has had overseas trade and traffic in terms of people moving in and out from different parts of the world, to arrive and do businesses. Some may have escaped persecution at home, if one traces back into history and others merely sought better prospects for themselves. Even the nationals of different parts of the region, moved in search of the 'oases' where water, fish and 'barter' opportunities were available.

Secondly, it is necessary that this nationalisation does not dilute quality and productivity. Otherwise it could prove counterproductive, as merely sinecures and disguised unemployment could be the result.

Thirdly, it is essential that with good training, individually calibrated exposure and 'mentoring', many good national candidates can be groomed for senior positions. There should be a consistent process of evaluating the results and establishing stretch targets for such candidates. It would be a grave mistake and indeed injustice to them and to their employers, if they are moved up too quickly to deal with the responsibilities of a senior position without adequate preparation and maturity.

Fourthly, it is essential that this whole movement is converted (as the UAE had done admirably through TANMIA and other such institutions) into a blueprint for the future. Effectively, an annual employment budget should be prepared that covers a number of jobs and economic sectors. The actuals achieved versus budgeted ought to be tracked on a monthly basis and all shortfalls explained in the same way as financial budgets are dealt within all organisations. This will have to be done meticulously and it is essential that the support of the existing expatriates is sought through a 'reward' scheme to meet and exceed these targets.

Fifthly, the private sector of each country needs to play a role and go beyond purely commercial considerations and short termism that can prove to be the bane in the pursuit of good social objectives. With minimal or non-existent taxes, the employment quota for nationals, should be accepted by the private sector as an opportunity to make indirect contribution to the national well being. Ideally this should be done on a voluntary basis, without targets and quotas being arbitrarily and compulsorily imposed on them.

Sixthly, the availability of qualified and experienced manpower for the private sector ought to be a predominant priority for the authorities. The government sectors should not become the 'employer by choice' for nationals because of their convenient timings, 'poor' supervision or the ability to do 'moonlighting'. An efficient government sector should generally result in shedding of jobs and where nationalisation is pursued at the cost of expatriate jobs in the government sector but not necessarily at the cost of efficiency and quality. Admittedly, all these are easier said than done.

Ultimately, this is almost like a national reconstruction task and deserves support from all quarters, irrespective of their nationality. This may sound a little grandiose, hectoring and jingoistic but need not be so. All expatriates and émigrés have indeed benefited from their host countries. Equally, the host countries have benefited too and should recognise the invaluable contribution made by their medium-term guest workers. This is true for, not only this part of the world, but even the U.S. as the sole superpower was build through the melting pot of expatriates and foreign work force; in the main. There is nothing wrong in being gracious and admit and applaud this contribution and indeed pay a tribute in financial terms, in an everlasting manner. Only the petty and not the prurient will think and act otherwise.

(The author (sureshk@emiratesbank.ae) is a General Manager in Emirates Bank Group. The views expressed in this article are not necessarily shared by the Bank.)

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